Impact of COVID-19 on Childhood Obesity in the United States [COVID-19 and Physical Activity Series]
Projecting the Impact of COVID-19 on Childhood Obesity in the United States by Dr. An is a microsimulation model with four scenarios. The four scenarios are: 1) a 2-month nationwide school closure in April and May 2020; 2) scenario 1 followed by a 10% reduction in daily physical activity in the summer from June to August; 3) scenario 2 followed by 2-month school closure in September and October; and 4) scenario 3 followed by an additional 2-month school closure in November and December. Previous studies show that U.S. elementary school children participate, on average, in 88 minutes of physical activity per day. The model accounts for decreased physical activity due to lost physical activity opportunities at school (i.e., cancelled physical education classes), which are not made up for at home due to nationwide stay-at-home orders. It relies on BMI and obesity data collected in a nationally representative longitudinal study tracking weight patterns of 15,631 children from kindergarten through 5th grade. Dr. An found that, relative to the control scenario without COVID-19, scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 were associated with an increase in the mean BMI by 0.056, 0.084, 0.141, and 0.198 units, respectively, and an increase in childhood obesity prevalence by 0.640, 0.972, 1.676, and 2.373 percentage points, respectively. This means that even a 2-month school closure alone could result in an increase in the childhood obesity rate by 0.640 percentage points, and a further increase by 2.377 percentage points if school closures continue to the end of 2020. By March 2021, approximately 1.27 million new childhood obesity cases could develop during the COVID-19 pandemic due to lost physical activity opportunities at school. Public health interventions are urgently called for to promote active lifestyles and to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on unhealthy weight gains and childhood obesity.
An, R. (2020). Projecting the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on childhood obesity in the US: A microsimulation model. Journal of Sport and Health Science.
